Financial Projections

Three-year financial outlook based on current pipeline and market assumptions.

break-even

ARR

margin

Revenue Model

Condelo operates a hybrid revenue model combining SaaS subscriptions, usage-based pricing, and revenue share components. The base SaaS subscription covers platform access and a set number of document ingestions per month. Usage-based charges apply for additional document processing, API calls, and advanced AI model usage beyond included quotas. Revenue share arrangements with implementation partners create an additional income stream while incentivising ecosystem growth. This blended approach provides predictable recurring revenue while capturing upside from high-usage customers.

Projections Table

MetricYear 1Year 2Year 3
ARR£120K£840K£3.2M
Customers52260
Gross Margin65%72%75%

Key Assumptions

£20K average contract value, growing as enterprise features mature and upsell motions develop.
12-month sales cycle for enterprise customers, with pilot-to-paid conversion as the primary motion.
90% gross retention rate, reflecting strong product-market fit in compliance where switching costs are high.
115% net revenue retention driven by usage expansion and cross-module adoption within accounts.
18-month CAC payback period, improving as brand awareness and referrals reduce acquisition costs.

Unit Economics

ACV

£20K average contract value today, with a path to £40K as enterprise features and multi-module deployments drive higher deal sizes.

CAC

£15K blended customer acquisition cost, improving over time with brand recognition, content marketing, and partner referrals.

LTV

£72K lifetime value at 90% gross retention, reflecting the sticky nature of compliance tools once embedded in workflows.

LTV:CAC Ratio

4.8x target ratio, well above the 3x benchmark for healthy SaaS businesses, indicating efficient capital deployment.

Sensitivity Analysis

Our projections are modelled across three scenarios. The base case assumes steady execution against the pipeline with a 12-month enterprise sales cycle. The upside case assumes faster-than-expected adoption driven by regulatory tailwinds and a shorter 9-month sales cycle, resulting in Year 3 ARR of £4.8M. The downside case assumes a longer 15-month sales cycle and lower conversion rates, yielding Year 3 ARR of £1.8M — still above break-even. In all scenarios, the 18-month runway provides sufficient time to reach cash-flow positive operations or secure follow-on funding.

Making the unknown, known.

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